INTICS - Intelligent Analytics
INTICS - Intelligent Analytics
INTICS - Intelligent Analytics
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INTICS - Intelligent Analytics
Overview

A forecast is any statement about the future, so our work in forecast is a vast subject. We focus on extrapolating from present information using systematic forecasting rules. Uncertainty where we understand the probabilities involved, so we can incorporate these in measures of forecast uncertainty.

Empirical models can take into account the effect of earlier events. However new unpredictable events will occur in the future, so the future will always appear more uncertain than the past. Any theory of economic forecasting allows for such contingencies, where any transformation of economic variables might alter because of changes in technology, legislation, politics, weather and society.

 
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Econometrics

Considerable intellectual activity within the economics is devoted to collection, interpretation and analysis of forecast of major economic variables. Since such forecasts are important to both government planning and industry, it is material to determine how well the models are reliable and may lead to improvement. We designed number of models that has included predictions of one economic variable or another, within different depth of the macroeconomic forecasting industry.

We are investigating closely the UK and European housing market; concentrating on surveying and analyzing the prediction of short-run GDP; inflation forecasts, bringing data from world leading economies, in order to have a common set of information about cyclical conditions, current downturn, estimate the qualitative impact on the economy etc.

As an example we could outline some key risks to the economic outlook:

  • downside risks - oil prices, unemployment rises, global imbalances, Euro zone recovery stalls, US consumer retrenchment;
  • upside risks - current monetary conditions stimulate growth, international migration also lifts the growth rates, business investment growth.
 
 
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